Speculation over Max Verstappen’s future in Formula 1 continues as Red Bull faces internal tensions and a decline in competitiveness going from 2024 into the 2025 season. While the Dutchman has committed to Red Bull until 2028, McLaren CEO Zak Brown believes a move to Mercedes in 2026 is a likely scenario.

Brown, who has played a key role in McLaren’s rise to challenge Red Bull’s dominance, argues that Mercedes offers Verstappen a more stable and competitive long-term project than Aston Martin, despite reports suggesting that a $1 billion deal could see him reunite with Adrian Newey, who recently left Red Bull for the Silverstone-based team.

“Oh, I think he’ll leave at the end of this year, most likely to Merc,” Brown told The Telegraph.

“There’s been talk of Aston Martin, too, with Adrian Newey joining. But as great as Adrian is – and he’s the greatest ever – you need a whole team around you. You need the culture. That takes time. If I was betting, I’d bet on Merc.”

One of the key reasons Brown believes Verstappen will choose Mercedes is the team’s strong position ahead of the 2026 regulation changes, particularly in the development of next-generation power units.

“In the last 10 years, they’ve won the championship seven or eight times,” he said.

“Last year they won five races. They have stability. We know Toto likes him. And I think we all feel HPP [Mercedes High Performance Powertrains] is best equipped on the power unit side heading into the new engine regulations next year.”

Verstappen had previously been linked to a move to Mercedes when Lewis Hamilton announced his switch to Ferrari last year. At the time, he was widely regarded as Toto Wolff’s top choice to replace the seven-time world champion. However, after Verstappen reaffirmed his commitment to Red Bull for 2025, Mercedes opted to promote Andrea Kimi Antonelli to partner George Russell.