Francesco Bagnaia’s chances of winning the title are looking very slim, as he trails Jorge Martin by 24 points heading into the season finale in Barcelona next week.

Bagnaia’s title defense has been challenging, but his crash from second place during the sprint race in Malaysia has further minimized his chances for the title.

Early on, Bagnaia acknowledged that sprint races were his weak spot. After six rounds, he had accumulated only 14 points in sprints, a stark contrast to Martin’s 56. Although he held a slight lead over Martin in full-length races, his deficit in sprints left him with a 39-point gap in the standings.

To Bagnaia’s credit, he has improved in sprints since June, winning six out of the last 13. Martin, however, has held the lead for most of the season with seven sprint victories. Bagnaia has shown he can be fast in shorter races, but overall, he has lost crucial points to Martin over the season.

Some of his struggles appeared as early as the second round in Portugal, where he ran off the track and surrendered a sprint win due to braking issues. A crash during Le Mans qualifying forced him to use his backup bike in the sprint, and he had to retire after just three laps. One of his biggest mistakes likely came in Barcelona, where he crashed on the last lap while leading the race.

Despite this rocky start, Bagnaia managed to lead the championship by mid-season, largely due to a mistake Martin made in Germany. However, after the summer break, Bagnaia stumbled again with a crash in the Silverstone sprint. The incident highlighted Bagnaia’s timing issues, as the point lead he had gained quickly shifted to a three-point deficit.

In Malaysia, Bagnaia suffered another costly crash in the sprint, marking his fourth sprint retirement of the season. These crashes alone have cost him 48 points. Although Bagnaia managed to respond with a strong performance on Sunday, his sprint results remained a significant drawback.

With ten wins across 19 grands prix, Bagnaia’s current season is one of his most successful ever. If he wins in Barcelona, Bagnaia would equal Valentino Rossi’s record of 11 wins in a single season.

If it weren’t for the new sprint format, Bagnaia would actually be leading the championship. However, the sprints have helped him refine his race pace under competitive conditions. Some of his poor sprint results weren’t entirely his fault, such as the incident in Jerez, where he was sandwiched by other riders.

Still, unforced errors have been a critical factor, and they may cost him the title to Martin next week.