The Australian Grand Prix at Melbourne’s Albert Park Circuit has always been a tricky one. Not because of its layout, but because overtaking here is notoriously difficult.

It’s a track that doesn’t always deliver wheel-to-wheel battles, but in the past, we forgave it for that. After all, for years, it was the season opener—the first time we got to see the new cars in action, the first time the pecking order was revealed, and the first proper dose of Formula 1 after months of waiting. And in 2025, it’s back as the first race of the season.

But while Albert Park itself isn’t famous for chaos, Formula 1 always finds a way to surprise. A technical failure, a crash, a badly timed safety car—anything can suddenly turn a dull race into a classic. And this time, the biggest wildcard might be the weather.

With a few days still to go until lights out, the forecast isn’t set in stone, but it’s starting to look like Sunday’s race could be heavily affected by rain. The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia’s official weather service, predicts that showers are highly likely on race day, with a 95% chance of rain and even the possibility of thunderstorms.

In contrast, Friday and Saturday should be relatively calm. Friday’s practice sessions are expected to be dry, with only a 5% chance of rain. Saturday’s qualifying will be a challenge for a different reason—it’s set to be a scorching 36°C, making tyre management crucial.

If the forecast holds, Sunday could be a completely different story. Rain always shakes things up in Formula 1, making the race more unpredictable and giving everyone a chance. A wet track means more driver mistakes, risky strategy decisions, and possibly a surprise winner. Some drivers are great in the rain, while others find it much harder. Choosing the right tyres at the perfect time could decide everything.