The 2024 Formula 1 World Championship is almost decided, with Max Verstappen being in control after a brilliant victory at the Sao Paulo Grand Prix.

The Red Bull driver now leads his closest rival, Lando Norris, by 62 points and with only three races left, including one sprint weekend, Verstappen is in a strong position to secure the title as early as this weekend’s Las Vegas Grand Prix.  

Norris, meanwhile, faces a tough challenge in keeping his dream alive. There are 86 points still up for grabs, but he would need a perfect performance in Vegas to close the gap. Even if he manages to delay Verstappen’s victory, the remaining races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi only offer 60 points, leaving little chance to make up the deficit.

SO WHAT ARE THE LAS VEGAS GP SCENARIOS?

If Verstappen finishes…

…1st: He is the champion, regardless of what Norris does.  
…1st with the fastest lap (FL): He is the champion.  

…2nd: Norris must win to keep the title race alive. 
…2nd with FL: Norris must win.  

…3rd: Norris needs to finish 1st or 2nd.  
…3rd with FL: Norris must win.  

…4th: Norris must finish ahead of Verstappen.
…4th with FL: Norris must finish 1st or 2nd.  

…5th: Norris must finish in the top three or 4th with FL.  
…5th with FL: Norris must finish in the top three.  

…6th: Norris must finish in the top four or 5th with FL.  
…6th with FL: Norris must finish in the top four.  

…7th: Norris must finish in the top five or 6th with FL.
…7th with FL: Norris must finish in the top five.  

…8th: Norris must finish in the top six or 7th with FL.
…8th with FL: Norris must finish in the top six.

…9th: Norris must finish in the top seven or 8th with FL.  
…9th with FL: Norris must finish in the top seven.  

…10th: Norris must finish in the top eight.
…10th with FL: Norris must finish in the top seven or 8th with FL.

If Verstappen doesn’t score: Norris must finish in the top eight or 9th with FL to keep the championship hopes alive.